* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/12/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 49 53 63 69 78 83 90 95 94 99 105 106 106 114 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 49 53 63 69 78 83 90 95 94 99 105 106 106 114 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 44 47 50 59 68 78 88 96 97 94 92 94 99 106 112 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 5 9 8 8 9 15 20 24 19 9 3 12 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -3 -3 0 -3 0 -1 -2 -6 -5 0 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 50 74 75 47 48 41 18 320 316 293 286 284 319 330 3 337 303 SST (C) 26.5 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.6 27.7 28.3 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.7 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 122 125 125 124 126 133 135 143 152 155 154 156 157 157 157 163 170 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 58 57 58 56 58 56 57 56 60 58 60 65 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 16 16 17 16 19 19 23 25 24 27 29 32 32 37 850 MB ENV VOR 135 139 132 116 109 94 71 72 65 71 57 56 43 52 70 86 121 200 MB DIV 30 12 -9 -15 -15 -13 18 25 51 30 13 8 19 6 41 51 21 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 -1 -3 -2 1 7 8 7 LAND (KM) 2088 1930 1781 1687 1589 1404 1119 896 602 353 252 252 394 500 646 735 812 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.2 21.0 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.4 39.2 41.0 42.4 43.8 46.9 50.0 52.9 56.2 59.1 61.7 64.0 66.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 15 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 12 12 11 11 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 7 10 13 20 27 33 40 44 46 50 50 45 39 34 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 382 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 29. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 6. 9. 6. 9. 12. 14. 13. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 29. 38. 43. 50. 55. 54. 59. 65. 66. 66. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.1 37.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/12/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 15.1% 10.5% 8.4% 6.8% 12.2% 14.1% 24.0% Logistic: 2.1% 8.6% 5.1% 1.9% 1.0% 3.8% 4.7% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.8% Consensus: 1.8% 9.0% 5.4% 3.4% 2.6% 5.6% 6.3% 13.4% DTOPS: 18.0% 23.0% 16.0% 17.0% 5.0% 9.0% 11.0% 17.0% SDCON: 9.9% 16.0% 10.7% 10.2% 3.8% 7.3% 8.6% 15.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/12/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/12/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 49 53 63 69 78 83 90 95 94 99 105 106 106 114 18HR AGO 40 39 42 46 50 60 66 75 80 87 92 91 96 102 103 103 111 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 54 60 69 74 81 86 85 90 96 97 97 105 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 44 50 59 64 71 76 75 80 86 87 87 95 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT