* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/12/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 43 47 55 65 75 81 88 94 95 98 102 106 107 114 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 43 47 55 65 75 81 88 94 95 98 102 106 107 114 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 38 41 48 57 68 79 88 92 91 90 90 94 101 110 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 8 7 5 8 5 6 15 19 25 20 16 5 9 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 0 0 1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -4 -4 -4 0 0 5 0 SHEAR DIR 27 27 59 64 40 50 16 322 314 301 289 287 294 360 316 355 302 SST (C) 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.1 26.9 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 125 127 125 131 139 142 148 153 154 155 157 157 158 156 165 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 59 57 59 57 55 57 58 59 63 64 68 68 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 17 18 18 19 21 21 23 26 26 28 31 35 37 41 850 MB ENV VOR 129 131 135 128 120 102 82 66 61 57 51 44 36 49 51 76 71 200 MB DIV 37 37 15 1 -8 -26 0 33 32 43 27 38 -5 16 21 50 64 700-850 TADV 5 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 -7 4 -4 0 0 1 7 17 LAND (KM) 1929 2112 1965 1846 1733 1545 1284 1031 822 568 390 334 371 512 643 758 854 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.9 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.1 19.7 20.3 21.0 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.4 37.2 39.0 40.6 42.1 45.2 48.4 51.4 54.1 56.8 59.3 61.6 63.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 16 15 14 15 15 14 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 5 6 9 15 22 29 33 39 41 43 43 39 39 37 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 11. 9. 11. 14. 18. 19. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 8. 12. 21. 30. 40. 46. 53. 59. 60. 63. 67. 71. 72. 79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.3 35.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/12/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 13.9% 9.5% 7.5% 6.2% 11.1% 12.7% 22.7% Logistic: 1.4% 5.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.6% 2.9% 6.0% 13.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.2% 7.0% 4.1% 2.8% 2.3% 4.7% 6.2% 12.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% SDCON: 1.1% 4.5% 2.5% 1.9% 1.1% 2.3% 3.6% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/12/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/12/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 43 47 55 65 75 81 88 94 95 98 102 106 107 114 18HR AGO 35 34 36 41 45 53 63 73 79 86 92 93 96 100 104 105 112 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 40 48 58 68 74 81 87 88 91 95 99 100 107 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 37 47 57 63 70 76 77 80 84 88 89 96 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT