* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/12/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 50 54 62 71 80 85 92 96 99 103 105 106 105 110 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 50 54 62 71 80 85 92 96 99 103 105 106 105 110 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 44 47 50 58 66 76 85 91 92 91 91 94 98 101 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 8 10 8 9 7 13 18 23 22 17 8 14 8 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -8 -4 -1 0 -2 0 4 4 3 SHEAR DIR 90 90 72 82 82 51 14 356 321 307 302 309 337 9 355 333 322 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.0 27.7 28.2 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 123 126 127 126 135 141 145 150 153 154 155 157 158 158 163 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 59 58 56 55 52 54 55 57 58 62 66 70 72 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 15 17 18 18 19 21 21 23 26 27 30 31 33 34 38 850 MB ENV VOR 129 129 133 135 127 106 87 61 57 44 44 26 31 38 40 54 55 200 MB DIV 40 47 41 28 9 -8 -4 33 31 32 26 27 1 27 5 40 36 700-850 TADV 1 7 2 2 4 0 0 -2 -2 -6 -8 2 -1 1 4 10 15 LAND (KM) 1711 1904 2098 1992 1857 1641 1433 1168 968 703 511 446 437 516 675 780 892 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.7 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.5 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.3 35.1 37.0 38.8 40.5 43.8 46.9 49.9 52.7 55.5 58.1 60.4 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 17 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 3 5 6 12 18 25 30 34 37 39 40 40 37 35 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 418 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 8. 11. 11. 14. 14. 16. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 22. 31. 40. 45. 52. 56. 59. 64. 65. 66. 65. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.5 33.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/12/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 13.7% 9.3% 7.2% 0.0% 11.1% 13.0% 22.7% Logistic: 2.7% 8.8% 4.1% 1.9% 1.3% 4.9% 7.9% 10.1% Bayesian: 1.6% 4.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% Consensus: 2.1% 8.8% 4.7% 3.1% 0.5% 5.6% 7.7% 11.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 8.0% SDCON: 1.5% 6.9% 3.3% 2.5% 0.2% 3.3% 4.8% 9.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/12/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 50 54 62 71 80 85 92 96 99 103 105 106 105 110 18HR AGO 40 39 42 47 51 59 68 77 82 89 93 96 100 102 103 102 107 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 45 53 62 71 76 83 87 90 94 96 97 96 101 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 42 51 60 65 72 76 79 83 85 86 85 90 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT