* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/12/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 48 52 57 67 76 84 91 97 96 99 100 101 100 102 104 V (KT) LAND 40 43 48 52 57 67 76 84 91 97 96 99 100 101 100 102 104 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 48 52 61 71 80 89 94 94 91 89 87 86 88 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 3 4 7 4 5 9 13 22 25 28 13 14 13 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 2 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -4 -3 7 4 4 6 2 SHEAR DIR 63 101 78 45 70 25 17 324 324 298 297 305 310 332 32 344 321 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.9 26.9 27.4 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 120 122 125 125 131 140 143 146 151 153 156 155 156 160 162 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 58 58 54 54 55 54 54 55 58 64 66 71 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 17 18 19 21 23 23 26 27 29 30 32 35 850 MB ENV VOR 119 124 129 123 124 103 89 70 56 47 36 20 1 -6 2 -12 19 200 MB DIV 65 47 38 24 9 -6 -6 20 40 34 44 24 35 15 32 8 19 700-850 TADV -5 1 2 0 3 2 0 0 -1 -4 -7 -2 0 4 0 4 7 LAND (KM) 1503 1718 1934 2106 2012 1761 1568 1315 1065 812 629 512 530 564 665 824 991 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.3 33.3 35.4 37.0 38.7 42.3 45.6 48.4 51.6 54.4 56.7 59.2 61.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 18 16 17 16 15 15 15 12 12 13 12 9 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 3 5 9 15 21 28 31 34 35 39 41 37 32 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 4. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 27. 36. 44. 51. 57. 56. 59. 60. 61. 60. 62. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 31.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/12/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.30 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 15.4% 10.6% 8.3% 0.0% 12.2% 14.1% 23.7% Logistic: 4.3% 17.3% 8.9% 4.9% 4.1% 12.2% 10.5% 13.8% Bayesian: 1.8% 6.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 1.1% 0.5% Consensus: 3.1% 13.0% 6.8% 4.5% 1.4% 8.6% 8.6% 12.7% DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 18.0% SDCON: 3.0% 13.5% 6.4% 4.2% 1.2% 5.8% 6.8% 15.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/12/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 48 52 57 67 76 84 91 97 96 99 100 101 100 102 104 18HR AGO 40 39 44 48 53 63 72 80 87 93 92 95 96 97 96 98 100 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 45 55 64 72 79 85 84 87 88 89 88 90 92 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 45 54 62 69 75 74 77 78 79 78 80 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT