* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/11/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 54 59 68 74 81 89 94 98 104 106 105 110 112 112 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 54 59 68 74 81 89 94 98 104 106 105 110 112 112 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 53 57 65 73 81 89 96 99 101 100 98 97 100 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 7 10 7 6 9 9 13 16 22 18 10 13 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 2 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 3 7 SHEAR DIR 60 74 97 83 70 95 57 360 346 313 299 284 292 297 329 331 296 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.0 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 120 120 122 127 126 135 141 144 150 154 156 154 154 160 162 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 59 59 57 56 52 50 50 50 55 56 58 61 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 16 18 17 19 21 23 24 28 30 29 34 35 37 850 MB ENV VOR 106 118 122 125 122 104 86 67 42 39 19 21 5 -1 0 -6 37 200 MB DIV 87 74 52 37 28 -18 -24 -13 23 16 24 19 29 4 10 16 49 700-850 TADV -6 -4 1 4 1 4 2 0 0 -3 3 -1 5 0 6 10 22 LAND (KM) 1290 1496 1702 1899 2097 1871 1682 1444 1174 980 721 511 441 449 516 722 970 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.2 20.1 21.0 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.3 31.2 33.2 35.1 37.0 40.3 43.2 46.8 49.9 52.6 55.4 58.4 61.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 18 17 15 16 16 15 14 14 15 12 7 8 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 2 3 5 11 18 25 29 33 36 39 42 40 36 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 16. 18. 15. 19. 20. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 19. 28. 34. 41. 49. 54. 58. 64. 66. 65. 70. 72. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.4 29.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/11/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.40 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 17.1% 11.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 20.9% 9.9% 4.3% 2.9% 11.5% 6.5% 8.3% Bayesian: 2.6% 5.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% Consensus: 3.8% 14.6% 7.7% 4.5% 1.0% 4.2% 7.5% 3.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 23.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 6.0% 17.0% 29.0% SDCON: 4.9% 18.8% 8.3% 4.7% 1.5% 5.1% 12.2% 16.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/11/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 49 54 59 68 74 81 89 94 98 104 106 105 110 112 112 18HR AGO 40 39 43 48 53 62 68 75 83 88 92 98 100 99 104 106 106 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 46 55 61 68 76 81 85 91 93 92 97 99 99 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 44 50 57 65 70 74 80 82 81 86 88 88 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT