* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/11/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 60 67 77 84 90 95 99 101 101 101 101 102 106 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 60 67 77 84 90 95 99 101 101 101 101 102 106 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 49 53 58 66 75 83 89 93 93 93 91 87 85 85 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 11 6 8 6 6 12 16 22 23 27 18 13 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -5 0 -4 -2 0 0 -4 -2 0 -3 5 9 8 9 SHEAR DIR 67 72 89 101 78 61 11 346 304 291 291 285 289 305 316 341 275 SST (C) 25.7 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 114 120 119 120 119 120 124 127 132 138 141 150 152 151 149 152 156 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 62 59 60 58 59 58 56 56 57 60 64 66 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 12 14 15 17 18 19 21 24 26 27 29 30 31 35 850 MB ENV VOR 96 103 118 121 118 114 83 69 47 32 24 9 -8 -13 -14 6 27 200 MB DIV 39 67 62 52 20 8 2 -23 6 34 32 47 21 21 0 26 38 700-850 TADV 2 -2 0 0 5 0 5 4 2 4 3 1 4 12 14 14 19 LAND (KM) 1081 1288 1495 1686 1879 2019 1804 1654 1430 1223 972 730 604 597 644 794 1003 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 18 18 18 16 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 9 8 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 4 7 12 17 23 27 30 28 37 40 33 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 27. 37. 44. 50. 55. 59. 61. 61. 61. 61. 62. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.3 27.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/11/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.38 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 17.5% 12.2% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 29.3% 15.5% 5.8% 4.4% 17.5% 16.8% 20.3% Bayesian: 7.4% 19.0% 2.7% 0.9% 0.7% 3.3% 5.8% 1.3% Consensus: 6.7% 21.9% 10.1% 5.3% 1.7% 6.9% 7.5% 7.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 9.0% SDCON: 4.8% 14.9% 7.0% 4.1% 2.3% 4.4% 5.7% 8.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/11/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 54 60 67 77 84 90 95 99 101 101 101 101 102 106 18HR AGO 40 39 44 49 55 62 72 79 85 90 94 96 96 96 96 97 101 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 47 54 64 71 77 82 86 88 88 88 88 89 93 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 43 53 60 66 71 75 77 77 77 77 78 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT