* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * DEXTER AL042025 08/06/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 45 45 46 45 42 37 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 45 45 46 45 42 37 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 44 42 38 34 31 30 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 46 50 48 47 41 38 36 31 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 5 2 1 -5 -3 -3 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 265 265 255 247 233 234 246 245 243 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.1 24.8 23.5 19.8 22.0 20.5 21.1 21.4 20.6 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 106 97 81 89 82 85 86 83 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -54.2 -53.2 -52.9 -51.8 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 40 39 39 35 37 39 45 52 57 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 21 22 27 26 24 22 20 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 25 13 5 10 13 17 0 -22 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 10 8 10 7 11 23 4 10 2 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -11 -8 -15 -12 -30 -20 -19 -11 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 677 705 635 587 588 688 888 1208 1549 1439 1132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 40.4 40.9 41.5 42.1 43.6 44.9 45.3 45.8 46.5 47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.2 55.4 53.5 51.4 49.3 45.4 41.7 37.2 32.5 28.2 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 15 15 16 16 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -8. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.9 57.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042025 DEXTER 08/06/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 60.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042025 DEXTER 08/06/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042025 DEXTER 08/06/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 45 45 46 45 42 37 35 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 43 44 43 40 35 33 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 41 40 37 32 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 35 32 27 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT