* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * DEXTER AL042025 08/05/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 38 37 35 29 23 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 38 37 35 29 23 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 31 28 25 21 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 36 36 40 48 58 60 57 51 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 2 0 -1 0 -4 -5 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 279 275 267 265 266 255 247 243 257 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 26.9 27.2 27.3 26.4 25.6 20.6 21.7 20.2 20.3 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 123 127 129 119 112 84 88 82 82 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -54.8 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 39 44 46 46 44 41 45 43 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 14 14 14 16 14 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 4 -7 5 2 11 -3 -18 -31 -16 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 17 21 30 13 11 -3 -3 -4 -20 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 0 1 -8 -9 -21 -23 -25 -30 -19 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 636 638 658 667 677 647 576 715 987 1302 1617 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.2 38.7 39.1 39.5 39.9 40.8 42.1 43.6 45.0 45.7 46.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.8 61.5 60.2 58.7 57.2 53.9 49.6 45.0 40.3 35.8 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 15 18 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 10 7 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 5. -2. -9. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -9. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -6. -12. -16. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 38.2 62.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042025 DEXTER 08/05/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 50.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042025 DEXTER 08/05/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042025 DEXTER 08/05/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 38 37 35 29 23 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 36 35 33 27 21 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 31 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 25 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT