* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC CLIMO USED * * DEXTER AL042025 08/05/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 37 32 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 37 32 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 30 29 27 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 36 36 39 40 46 56 62 63 60 44 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 2 1 -1 0 -6 -9 -7 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 288 287 279 271 265 271 267 260 262 280 292 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 28.1 27.5 26.3 27.1 27.4 26.4 24.7 22.2 20.4 19.0 17.4 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 138 130 116 125 130 120 106 91 83 79 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 39 39 42 47 51 48 47 49 45 36 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 14 15 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -17 -19 -7 -10 -1 8 -9 -50 -31 -6 -40 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -12 4 19 33 23 11 2 10 -7 -22 -37 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 8 5 1 3 -6 -17 -15 -24 -19 0 14 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 678 675 633 623 629 664 687 579 701 946 1207 1558 1122 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.6 38.2 38.7 39.1 39.7 40.5 41.8 43.5 45.1 46.5 48.0 49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.9 63.9 62.9 61.8 60.8 58.1 54.8 50.4 45.3 40.8 36.8 31.8 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 12 16 19 19 17 17 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 16 11 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 4. -2. -10. -13. -16. -17. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -3. -9. -15. -19. -22. -20. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 37.0 64.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042025 DEXTER 08/05/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042025 DEXTER 08/05/25 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042025 DEXTER 08/05/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 37 37 32 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 36 31 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 33 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT