* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC CLIMO USED * * DEXTER AL042025 08/05/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 41 40 34 28 23 24 24 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 41 40 34 28 23 24 24 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 37 36 32 28 25 22 20 20 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 36 37 36 43 47 49 63 66 64 60 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 2 3 1 1 -1 -1 -11 -8 -10 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 276 281 278 272 262 267 267 263 260 262 279 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 28.2 27.6 26.4 27.6 26.6 24.9 23.4 20.8 19.7 16.9 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 140 131 118 132 122 108 96 82 80 77 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -55.1 -55.8 -55.6 -56.0 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 39 37 36 40 47 45 47 48 53 46 43 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 13 14 13 15 12 12 13 15 16 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -16 -16 -19 -5 -8 14 -14 -59 -47 -48 -70 -93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 0 -10 0 13 40 18 0 6 31 11 -18 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 8 8 4 0 -13 -17 -15 -13 -27 -9 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 660 658 653 617 597 624 700 574 616 784 977 1369 1143 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.6 37.2 37.8 38.4 38.9 39.7 40.2 41.7 43.6 44.8 45.5 47.1 49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.0 65.0 63.9 62.9 61.9 59.4 56.1 51.0 46.5 43.2 40.2 34.5 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 17 20 16 12 16 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 20 17 15 11 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -11. -15. -18. -19. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. 1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -6. -12. -17. -16. -16. -9. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 36.6 66.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042025 DEXTER 08/05/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 49.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042025 DEXTER 08/05/25 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042025 DEXTER 08/05/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 42 41 40 34 28 23 24 24 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 39 38 32 26 21 22 22 29 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 36 35 29 23 18 19 19 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT