* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * DEXTER AL042025 08/04/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 45 46 44 43 41 39 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 45 46 44 43 41 39 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 45 44 41 39 36 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 26 28 28 29 31 40 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 2 2 2 5 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 265 254 266 284 290 273 267 266 269 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.7 26.8 27.3 27.2 26.6 26.5 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 140 134 133 121 127 126 120 120 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 45 41 38 46 49 46 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 15 15 14 14 15 14 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 10 0 -11 -21 -26 -12 7 9 -4 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 3 10 -2 -11 0 25 31 11 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 6 5 4 7 0 -6 -13 -5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 649 739 761 735 733 686 709 747 815 762 734 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.9 35.4 36.2 36.9 37.9 38.5 38.9 39.2 39.8 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.8 67.6 66.5 65.3 64.1 62.2 60.3 58.1 55.6 52.5 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 8 8 9 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 15 15 16 18 14 8 7 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.3 68.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042025 DEXTER 08/04/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.44 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.65 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.38 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 11.3% 7.8% 5.6% 3.9% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 3.4% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.9% 3.7% 2.1% 1.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 3.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042025 DEXTER 08/04/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042025 DEXTER 08/04/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 45 46 44 43 41 39 35 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 42 43 41 40 38 36 32 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 35 34 32 30 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 29 28 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT