* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 11/02/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 43 42 39 40 37 27 24 22 21 23 24 32 50 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 43 42 39 40 37 27 29 29 30 30 34 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 44 45 46 47 49 48 38 30 30 30 30 32 29 30 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 12 17 24 21 22 21 32 37 40 50 68 48 49 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 1 -2 1 0 2 4 4 4 -4 -20 -11 -17 6 0 SHEAR DIR 207 353 315 299 282 271 280 294 312 321 339 341 316 291 263 282 322 SST (C) 20.8 20.7 20.7 20.9 20.5 21.0 20.9 19.7 18.8 17.5 17.5 18.3 17.6 16.4 17.5 1.6 1.5 POT. INT. (KT) 82 81 81 82 81 84 85 82 79 74 70 70 71 72 76 63 61 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -54.0 -54.6 -55.3 -56.6 -57.1 -58.1 -59.2 -59.9 -59.5 -59.1 -58.6 -59.5 -59.5 -58.4 -58.3 200 MB VXT (C) 5.9 4.6 4.1 3.2 2.3 2.6 1.8 1.3 -0.3 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 53 53 52 51 50 51 49 46 37 33 40 50 50 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 21 18 17 14 13 13 10 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 178 148 138 125 125 132 126 69 -3 -60 -71 -82 -44 -23 -21 -42 -71 200 MB DIV 52 74 49 82 21 2 12 10 5 -29 -68 -38 -24 20 35 36 24 700-850 TADV -10 -2 -8 1 1 4 13 18 26 20 1 7 13 19 25 16 7 LAND (KM) 1581 1657 1738 1844 1772 1522 1179 748 307 -29 -229 -257 -215 -161 177 -147 -303 LAT (DEG N) 40.5 40.7 40.7 40.5 40.3 39.5 39.0 39.3 40.4 41.0 40.3 39.7 40.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.3 34.1 33.0 31.7 30.3 27.1 23.1 18.1 12.7 8.3 6.0 5.9 6.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 12 14 17 21 20 13 6 1 5 13 19 14 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -4. -3. -0. 2. 8. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. -0. -5. -10. -13. -9. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 6. 1. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -18. -23. -35. -39. -40. -40. -39. -38. -37. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -5. -8. -18. -21. -23. -24. -22. -21. -13. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 40.5 35.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 11/02/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.08 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 12.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 2.2% 1.5% 0% 0% .1% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 11/02/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 11/02/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 44 43 42 39 40 37 27 29 29 30 30 34 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 42 41 38 39 36 26 28 28 29 29 33 29 29 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 39 36 37 34 24 26 26 27 27 31 27 27 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 30 31 28 18 20 20 21 21 25 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT