* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 11/01/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 44 42 39 37 34 30 22 21 22 25 26 29 38 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 44 42 39 37 34 30 24 29 30 30 35 33 38 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 45 46 47 47 47 47 44 34 30 30 30 33 33 29 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 5 4 12 21 25 23 24 30 33 41 42 44 54 13 29 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -2 1 3 2 -1 -1 3 6 -2 -6 -10 -16 5 22 15 SHEAR DIR 188 218 342 313 295 272 266 287 289 310 311 329 335 323 300 169 191 SST (C) 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.5 20.0 20.0 20.6 18.8 17.9 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.3 15.8 13.4 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 81 81 80 80 80 80 80 83 79 76 71 68 67 72 74 73 72 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.4 -54.1 -54.7 -55.5 -57.2 -58.1 -58.9 -59.6 -61.1 -61.7 -61.0 -59.6 -59.3 -59.1 -59.4 200 MB VXT (C) 6.0 5.9 4.4 3.8 3.0 2.2 1.6 1.5 0.2 -1.5 -1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 52 53 54 55 55 49 51 57 59 57 47 34 31 36 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 23 22 20 17 15 13 11 8 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 192 180 154 141 121 136 122 83 38 -6 -72 -122 -123 -64 -52 -94 -197 200 MB DIV 84 60 77 31 78 -28 15 2 5 23 -25 -33 -68 43 20 17 16 700-850 TADV -19 -13 -3 -6 0 2 9 18 27 35 21 0 0 14 -1 0 36 LAND (KM) 1502 1571 1634 1707 1793 1667 1408 1066 697 261 -59 -172 -206 -29 161 -29 10 LAT (DEG N) 40.5 40.8 41.1 41.1 41.0 40.5 39.9 40.0 41.0 42.2 42.7 42.0 41.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.4 35.2 34.1 33.1 32.0 29.1 25.8 21.8 17.3 12.3 8.0 5.9 6.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 10 12 14 17 19 18 13 5 3 14 22 30 32 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -6. -7. -3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -20. -26. -32. -43. -44. -44. -42. -42. -40. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -23. -24. -23. -20. -19. -16. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 40.5 36.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 11/01/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 11/01/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 11/01/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 45 44 42 39 37 34 30 24 29 30 30 35 33 38 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 43 41 38 36 33 29 23 28 29 29 34 32 37 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 38 35 33 30 26 20 25 26 26 31 29 34 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 29 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT