* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 09/22/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 40 38 36 34 33 33 32 30 31 36 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 40 38 36 34 33 33 32 30 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 29 28 26 25 23 24 23 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 11 10 15 17 27 45 40 36 36 32 30 34 29 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 3 10 2 5 8 9 12 9 4 5 6 SHEAR DIR 200 193 176 182 208 174 215 239 254 268 273 273 271 283 282 280 274 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 28.1 26.8 25.2 23.8 23.6 22.2 17.6 22.8 25.1 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 164 165 167 165 142 127 113 103 102 94 77 93 107 150 150 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -55.6 -55.8 -56.3 -56.6 -56.5 -56.3 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 2 1 700-500 MB RH 39 41 44 48 50 55 62 59 54 44 43 41 40 40 44 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -20 -12 -4 -6 57 33 24 8 13 -53 -58 -16 -36 -58 -57 -85 200 MB DIV -10 -12 0 8 35 64 56 32 -7 -5 -34 -46 -37 -28 -21 -35 -46 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 3 8 1 14 23 -7 -27 -22 -45 -42 -25 9 -7 -13 LAND (KM) 1135 1163 1224 1311 1426 1663 1324 1118 1363 1868 1187 532 9 51 8 -103 -228 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.5 27.1 27.8 28.8 31.6 34.9 38.1 39.7 40.1 39.5 38.5 37.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.7 55.7 55.6 55.2 54.8 53.3 50.4 45.9 39.2 31.4 23.2 15.6 9.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 9 12 18 23 25 29 31 31 29 24 17 14 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 41 39 34 30 28 29 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 18. 19. 18. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 15. 13. 11. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 6. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.2 55.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 09/22/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.77 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.92 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 13.4% 8.8% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.3% 3.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.7% 4.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.3% 3.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 09/22/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 09/22/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 40 38 36 34 33 33 32 30 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 36 39 37 35 33 32 32 31 29 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 32 35 33 31 29 28 28 27 25 22 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 28 26 24 22 21 21 20 18 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT