* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 09/22/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 41 40 38 35 35 35 35 36 41 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 41 40 38 35 35 35 35 36 41 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 29 27 25 23 23 23 24 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 10 9 12 12 19 25 40 42 37 29 25 20 15 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 3 0 4 7 5 8 7 8 4 4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 191 201 205 190 183 190 192 234 250 265 276 281 286 288 296 318 310 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 28.7 27.7 25.6 25.4 23.9 24.0 22.9 22.8 22.0 22.5 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 164 165 166 166 151 137 116 115 103 103 94 91 85 86 88 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -55.9 -56.6 -57.1 -56.7 -56.8 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 7 6 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 38 39 41 44 47 52 59 59 51 45 34 34 31 31 30 28 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -20 -20 -9 0 18 53 34 3 -7 -53 -88 -41 0 13 16 -2 200 MB DIV -12 -15 -19 -5 13 54 51 24 0 -20 -35 -41 -51 -5 -50 -13 -33 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 4 2 8 -2 22 -4 -32 -37 -37 -43 -28 -12 3 15 LAND (KM) 1132 1154 1200 1267 1363 1633 1431 1167 1242 1678 1548 991 632 376 266 292 341 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.4 26.9 27.5 28.3 30.6 33.8 36.8 38.7 39.3 38.5 37.1 35.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.6 55.7 55.7 55.5 55.1 54.1 51.8 48.2 42.4 35.0 27.3 20.6 15.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 7 10 16 20 22 27 30 29 25 18 11 7 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 41 39 36 32 29 26 24 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 16. 15. 13. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 16. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.1 55.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 09/22/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.76 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 10.4% 6.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.4% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2% 3.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 09/22/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 09/22/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 41 40 38 35 35 35 35 36 41 47 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 36 40 39 37 34 34 34 34 35 40 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 32 36 35 33 30 30 30 30 31 36 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 29 28 26 23 23 23 23 24 29 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT