* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 09/21/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 33 39 42 49 52 47 39 34 29 28 34 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 33 39 42 49 52 47 39 34 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 32 27 23 20 19 21 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 9 9 12 19 23 35 46 45 42 36 36 27 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 4 2 9 9 9 12 6 3 3 SHEAR DIR 188 204 214 217 208 221 179 211 236 259 266 275 279 286 294 311 316 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 27.7 26.7 25.4 24.2 24.1 23.1 22.5 21.6 19.2 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 163 164 165 165 161 136 126 115 106 104 97 92 85 74 74 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 -55.7 -56.4 -57.4 -58.1 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 4 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 4 700-500 MB RH 36 37 39 39 41 48 56 63 54 51 43 37 32 28 23 23 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 9 13 13 8 6 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -4 -16 -13 -7 7 50 23 19 24 -10 -82 -62 10 14 5 -15 200 MB DIV -9 -11 -11 -11 -1 43 73 50 25 -15 -28 -30 -39 -41 -58 -37 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 3 4 11 -3 8 -11 -20 -40 -50 -43 -43 -22 0 9 LAND (KM) 1135 1156 1183 1235 1311 1517 1569 1240 1108 1391 1841 1178 690 361 48 -94 -121 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.8 29.6 32.5 35.7 38.2 39.4 39.4 38.2 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 55.5 55.5 55.4 55.2 54.5 53.0 50.2 45.9 39.1 30.8 23.0 16.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 6 8 12 18 21 24 30 32 29 23 17 11 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 36 32 30 27 25 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -2. -5. -9. -15. -19. -18. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -2. 3. 1. -6. -10. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 24. 27. 22. 14. 9. 4. 3. 9. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.0 55.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 09/21/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.74 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.90 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 10.3% 6.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.4% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 09/21/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 09/21/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 29 33 39 42 49 52 47 39 34 29 28 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 31 37 40 47 50 45 37 32 27 26 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 34 37 44 47 42 34 29 24 23 22 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 27 30 37 40 35 27 22 17 16 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT