* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 09/21/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 44 47 46 43 39 39 40 39 38 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 44 47 46 43 39 39 34 33 32 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 32 32 31 28 26 25 28 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 15 12 10 12 14 23 34 43 47 45 49 54 52 54 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 1 1 4 10 12 8 11 10 12 5 SHEAR DIR 199 187 201 212 221 187 197 195 221 247 259 248 249 244 239 228 228 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 28.7 27.7 25.6 25.3 23.6 22.0 19.9 30.6 31.1 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 163 166 166 166 150 137 116 115 104 94 85 177 177 176 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.5 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 36 39 38 38 38 44 52 59 60 53 50 42 33 33 42 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 7 9 12 16 19 25 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 0 -11 -12 0 18 38 29 17 20 -19 -36 -51 -8 -56 -48 200 MB DIV 0 -9 -2 -12 -12 11 55 27 36 8 -8 -18 -15 -13 25 -1 -197 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 3 7 7 -13 -24 -45 -90 -71 -60 -38 -81 -28 LAND (KM) 1112 1123 1156 1188 1239 1405 1672 1433 1170 1250 1715 1298 497 -160 48 311 -62 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.9 28.4 30.7 33.8 36.8 38.6 39.6 39.6 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.2 55.3 55.2 55.1 55.0 54.5 53.5 51.5 48.1 42.4 34.2 24.5 15.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 6 10 15 19 22 28 36 37 34 30 29 27 23 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 37 35 32 28 27 25 10 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 6. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. 18. 21. 20. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -9. -16. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -7. -5. -1. 3. 6. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 15. 19. 22. 21. 18. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.6 55.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 09/21/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.72 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.92 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.6% 6.3% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.5% 2.0% 0.9% 0.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.0% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.4% 3.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 09/21/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 09/21/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 44 47 46 43 39 39 34 33 32 32 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 32 38 42 45 44 41 37 37 32 31 30 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 28 34 38 41 40 37 33 33 28 27 26 26 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 27 31 34 33 30 26 26 21 20 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT