* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 09/21/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 44 44 44 42 41 35 33 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 44 44 44 42 41 35 33 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 31 31 32 31 30 27 25 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 12 15 17 12 15 20 32 39 51 55 67 89 97 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 14 18 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 219 210 202 214 229 206 208 211 226 249 263 256 251 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 28.2 27.3 25.4 23.7 21.0 19.2 11.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 161 162 165 164 164 164 143 132 115 105 91 85 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 36 36 36 38 41 48 56 63 62 56 62 72 67 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 5 6 8 7 11 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 14 2 2 1 -4 0 18 17 20 14 51 50 40 -22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -19 -3 -11 -11 -6 20 60 47 13 18 -14 35 40 20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 2 2 7 0 -17 -41 -40 -33 26 44 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1106 1146 1172 1198 1224 1311 1480 1667 1330 1144 1315 1787 840 209 -356 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.5 29.1 31.6 34.8 37.4 39.3 41.2 43.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.9 54.8 54.8 54.8 54.8 54.7 54.3 53.2 50.8 47.0 40.4 30.8 19.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 6 11 16 19 23 33 42 43 45 44 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 36 35 35 34 30 28 29 17 7 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 6. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. 21. 25. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -7. -13. -21. -30. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -8. -7. -8. -4. -0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 19. 19. 17. 16. 10. 8. 7. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.3 54.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 09/21/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.13 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.73 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.88 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.8% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 6.1% 6.2% 3.2% 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.4% 4.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 3.8% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 09/21/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 09/21/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 44 44 44 42 41 35 33 29 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 33 38 42 42 42 40 39 33 31 27 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 34 38 38 38 36 35 29 27 23 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 31 31 31 29 28 22 20 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT