* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 09/20/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 43 45 44 43 40 40 36 33 32 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 43 45 44 43 40 40 36 33 32 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 34 34 34 32 30 27 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 14 16 12 9 12 20 27 40 51 53 46 49 48 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 -2 0 -2 3 9 9 10 6 SHEAR DIR 204 214 213 204 196 216 199 201 187 217 231 254 263 268 265 263 260 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 28.2 27.7 26.1 25.7 24.9 24.3 23.7 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 155 155 161 165 165 164 142 136 119 116 109 104 99 91 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -55.5 -56.5 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 5 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 39 40 41 45 52 60 67 59 55 46 41 35 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 8 8 11 12 16 850 MB ENV VOR 36 33 19 11 10 1 2 -4 16 5 21 8 -9 -20 -40 -41 -4 200 MB DIV 5 -22 -12 3 9 -22 15 32 73 52 30 -5 -30 -21 0 9 19 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 0 6 -20 -38 -36 -36 -11 -17 -21 LAND (KM) 1006 1014 1039 1062 1095 1180 1295 1493 1659 1345 1201 1333 1694 1817 1303 855 455 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.4 26.1 27.2 29.0 31.7 34.7 36.8 37.7 37.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.3 55.2 54.8 54.5 53.9 52.7 50.5 47.1 42.3 36.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 2 3 3 3 4 8 12 16 17 18 22 24 25 22 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 44 43 40 35 31 28 29 18 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 20. 20. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -8. -15. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -12. -8. -8. -5. -4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 20. 19. 18. 15. 15. 11. 8. 7. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.5 55.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 09/20/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.68 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.75 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 15.2% 10.2% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 5.8% 4.2% 1.4% 0.2% 2.7% 2.2% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.2% 5.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.9% 4.4% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 09/20/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 09/20/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 43 45 44 43 40 40 36 33 32 38 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 32 37 41 43 42 41 38 38 34 31 30 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 33 37 39 38 37 34 34 30 27 26 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 30 32 31 30 27 27 23 20 19 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT