* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 09/20/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 46 48 49 48 48 44 44 38 36 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 46 48 49 48 48 44 44 38 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 32 35 37 39 38 37 34 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 15 14 13 13 8 8 10 20 26 34 34 42 42 49 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 1 0 1 2 2 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 215 205 212 214 209 210 242 207 217 209 224 244 265 273 272 268 259 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 28.9 28.0 27.3 26.5 26.2 25.4 25.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 155 157 161 166 166 165 152 139 130 121 118 111 109 103 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.4 -55.9 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 8 7 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 42 41 40 40 39 42 44 48 53 60 62 53 49 45 42 41 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 36 35 25 11 3 -9 -6 -2 12 1 -2 -22 -29 -19 -22 -18 200 MB DIV 8 2 -23 -11 -1 -7 -5 8 55 57 22 18 -41 -18 -3 0 27 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 -1 2 2 7 3 2 -14 -14 -14 -6 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 996 1004 1027 1051 1082 1167 1246 1414 1649 1547 1324 1314 1505 1771 2056 1724 1317 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.1 25.8 26.5 28.0 30.1 32.8 35.2 36.4 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.3 55.3 55.2 55.1 55.0 54.6 54.3 53.7 52.9 51.2 48.7 45.2 41.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 2 2 3 3 4 6 10 14 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 44 42 41 36 35 31 30 23 14 6 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -6. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 15. 21. 23. 24. 23. 23. 19. 19. 13. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.3 55.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 09/20/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.68 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.68 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 14.5% 9.8% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.7% 3.2% 1.3% 0.2% 3.5% 4.4% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.6% 4.5% 2.9% 0.1% 1.2% 5.0% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 09/20/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 09/20/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 46 48 49 48 48 44 44 38 36 35 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 33 38 44 46 47 46 46 42 42 36 34 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 29 34 40 42 43 42 42 38 38 32 30 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 26 32 34 35 34 34 30 30 24 22 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT