* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 09/20/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 46 47 46 46 43 40 35 33 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 46 47 46 46 43 40 35 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 31 33 35 36 36 35 32 30 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 13 15 15 16 13 8 13 19 29 36 39 38 39 45 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 4 4 5 SHEAR DIR 224 216 204 211 213 209 229 220 224 207 224 232 258 266 277 269 265 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 28.0 27.7 26.5 26.1 25.4 25.2 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 155 155 157 163 165 165 162 139 135 121 118 111 110 105 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -55.7 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 42 41 40 40 41 44 46 53 58 64 56 52 45 42 38 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 40 33 31 20 2 -7 -14 -5 21 5 4 -20 -31 -27 -32 -31 200 MB DIV -16 7 7 -17 -16 -1 -18 6 33 69 30 17 -7 -26 -8 3 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 7 4 9 -6 -20 -24 -16 -12 -17 LAND (KM) 1006 992 1009 1035 1052 1126 1197 1335 1544 1616 1340 1243 1398 1672 1986 1774 1375 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.2 25.9 26.5 27.7 29.5 32.1 34.8 36.5 36.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 55.6 55.6 55.6 55.6 55.4 55.1 54.6 53.8 52.4 50.1 46.8 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 3 4 4 8 12 16 16 16 18 19 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 47 49 47 46 46 40 35 29 27 27 15 11 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 20. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. -0. -4. -9. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 21. 22. 21. 21. 18. 15. 10. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.5 55.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 09/20/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.68 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.72 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 12.0% 8.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.7% 2.3% 1.3% 0.3% 3.1% 4.5% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.3% 3.6% 2.5% 0.1% 1.0% 4.7% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 09/20/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 09/20/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 46 47 46 46 43 40 35 33 33 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 32 37 42 44 45 44 44 41 38 33 31 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 33 38 40 41 40 40 37 34 29 27 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 31 33 34 33 33 30 27 22 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT