* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 09/20/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 42 47 51 52 51 49 50 49 43 41 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 42 47 51 52 51 49 50 49 43 41 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 35 37 38 40 42 43 43 42 39 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 14 17 15 14 12 13 15 25 36 44 42 41 48 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -5 -3 0 0 -1 1 0 1 -2 3 11 13 8 9 SHEAR DIR 215 219 208 204 214 226 214 239 214 218 208 222 240 242 251 247 247 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 28.1 27.1 25.4 24.7 22.3 21.3 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 154 154 157 163 164 166 163 142 130 114 110 96 92 88 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -54.4 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 9 9 8 7 3 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 46 46 43 41 41 40 42 44 47 54 61 65 58 57 43 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 8 11 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 71 61 46 32 30 9 2 -13 -4 16 32 41 8 9 -3 -17 -30 200 MB DIV -17 -14 3 3 -10 6 -13 0 21 57 57 31 2 -4 -26 0 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 2 4 6 -8 -16 -49 -88 -49 -25 LAND (KM) 1021 999 1001 1024 1041 1105 1191 1301 1488 1727 1384 1148 1248 1697 1214 419 -319 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.5 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.6 26.3 27.2 28.7 31.1 34.4 37.5 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.3 55.5 55.6 55.5 55.5 55.3 54.9 54.4 53.5 52.3 50.1 46.6 41.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 2 2 4 5 7 10 16 20 22 27 33 38 36 33 HEAT CONTENT 45 48 48 46 45 40 35 31 30 27 18 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 18. 19. 20. 22. 22. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -9. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -11. -7. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 26. 27. 26. 24. 25. 24. 18. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.6 55.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 09/20/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 7.5% 5.2% 2.8% 0.6% 4.1% 7.9% 12.4% Bayesian: 1.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1.7% 5.8% 4.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962024 INVEST 09/20/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 09/20/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 32 37 42 47 51 52 51 49 50 49 43 41 33 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 34 39 44 48 49 48 46 47 46 40 38 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 34 39 43 44 43 41 42 41 35 33 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 32 36 37 36 34 35 34 28 26 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT