* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 10/18/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 36 43 48 50 51 51 53 56 58 61 61 64 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 30 28 32 34 35 36 37 40 43 45 45 48 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 27 27 30 30 31 35 41 46 51 56 61 64 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 10 10 8 10 6 8 11 15 12 14 15 18 16 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -6 -3 -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 211 185 182 178 158 167 170 112 76 82 78 49 28 32 40 31 289 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 28.8 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 171 172 172 169 150 147 151 152 143 143 145 145 146 149 161 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 6 5 5 4 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 76 76 78 81 82 83 82 78 76 76 76 74 69 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 15 15 12 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 64 67 67 71 73 62 64 58 40 45 43 55 54 49 48 29 200 MB DIV 72 68 80 90 100 54 14 52 132 173 168 129 27 14 13 45 39 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -4 -5 3 3 6 3 2 0 -2 -4 -8 -7 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 154 171 159 77 -40 -179 95 253 410 555 668 772 835 933 1081 1176 1301 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.4 17.1 16.7 15.9 14.7 13.4 12.4 11.9 11.7 11.7 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.5 85.4 86.4 87.5 88.7 91.3 93.7 96.2 98.7 101.1 103.3 105.5 107.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 13 13 14 13 11 11 11 12 12 12 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 67 67 65 62 59 15 24 24 23 24 24 25 27 24 25 24 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 11. 19. 25. 31. 37. 43. 47. 52. 53. 57. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 5. 4. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. -0. -7. -13. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 11. 18. 23. 25. 26. 26. 28. 31. 33. 36. 36. 39. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.3 84.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 10/18/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.98 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 16.9% 10.6% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 20.3% 7.3% 2.5% 1.4% 9.1% 34.2% 62.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 9.1% 81.8% Consensus: 2.0% 13.9% 6.3% 3.2% 0.5% 3.4% 18.9% 48.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 7.9% 3.6% 1.6% .2% 1.7% 9.4% 24.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952024 INVEST 10/18/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 10/18/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 31 30 28 32 34 35 36 37 40 43 45 45 48 51 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 27 25 29 31 32 33 34 37 40 42 42 45 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 23 21 25 27 28 29 30 33 36 38 38 41 44 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT