* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 10/18/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 41 52 58 59 56 50 50 52 53 56 57 60 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 41 40 31 33 31 25 24 26 27 30 31 34 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 35 34 29 32 33 36 41 47 53 59 65 70 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 5 6 5 6 7 6 12 17 12 15 15 15 13 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -1 -1 1 -2 0 -2 -5 -4 -5 -4 -4 0 4 1 SHEAR DIR 191 198 165 173 164 129 158 113 57 52 61 50 29 9 353 345 234 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.6 28.5 28.8 29.3 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 169 169 172 170 164 163 145 149 157 146 147 152 161 169 171 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 81 78 75 77 76 77 78 80 82 81 81 77 76 73 68 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 18 16 12 7 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 71 60 64 75 78 83 67 66 67 57 43 41 43 51 55 62 41 200 MB DIV 78 69 73 83 98 83 20 34 94 158 177 150 81 0 12 11 13 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 -3 0 -2 2 6 5 0 0 -3 -8 -10 -19 -11 -6 LAND (KM) 139 151 135 120 124 -38 -140 112 303 399 500 560 633 716 897 1039 1274 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.3 15.4 14.3 13.0 12.4 12.2 12.5 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.6 84.3 85.1 85.9 86.9 89.1 91.3 93.5 95.8 98.1 100.3 102.7 105.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 12 11 13 12 11 11 12 14 15 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 65 66 64 62 62 55 21 24 20 22 26 30 32 28 23 23 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 31. 36. 42. 47. 51. 53. 57. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 3. -2. -10. -17. -20. -20. -21. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 16. 27. 33. 34. 31. 25. 25. 27. 28. 31. 32. 35. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.9 83.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 10/18/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.84 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.94 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 31.2% 14.8% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 22.3% 7.7% 1.5% 0.7% 6.8% 25.9% 56.7% Bayesian: 1.7% 16.1% 4.5% 1.3% 0.8% 7.4% 10.1% 63.1% Consensus: 2.7% 23.2% 9.0% 3.8% 0.5% 4.8% 18.5% 39.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952024 INVEST 10/18/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 10/18/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 35 41 40 31 33 31 25 24 26 27 30 31 34 38 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 38 37 28 30 28 22 21 23 24 27 28 31 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 31 30 21 23 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT