* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 10/18/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 41 47 59 67 71 67 58 51 51 54 56 58 60 64 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 41 47 59 43 32 31 23 15 16 18 20 22 24 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 37 45 36 30 33 35 36 40 46 53 60 67 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 2 6 4 7 7 11 19 16 9 13 12 16 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -2 0 1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 0 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 207 261 294 194 201 168 143 116 97 53 55 57 51 27 14 13 13 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 29.9 30.0 29.0 28.5 28.9 29.5 28.6 28.7 29.3 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 167 168 172 168 170 153 144 150 161 147 148 158 164 168 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 6 5 6 4 6 5 6 4 6 6 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 84 80 77 75 77 76 76 78 79 78 78 77 75 75 70 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 13 14 17 17 16 11 6 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 69 66 60 56 65 75 65 56 74 69 58 46 28 43 46 56 52 200 MB DIV 117 96 92 101 91 94 52 38 51 90 190 163 120 21 -13 -10 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 5 4 10 7 0 1 -4 -4 -12 -11 -3 LAND (KM) 168 179 168 161 136 87 -100 -96 172 285 376 461 548 601 700 894 1024 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.3 17.2 16.9 16.3 15.5 14.2 13.1 12.7 12.7 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.5 83.0 83.6 84.3 85.2 87.4 89.8 92.0 94.2 96.4 98.6 100.8 103.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 13 14 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 66 67 68 67 64 62 34 31 21 23 25 31 34 35 27 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 35. 41. 46. 51. 53. 56. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 5. 4. -3. -11. -18. -19. -19. -20. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 14. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 22. 34. 42. 46. 42. 33. 26. 27. 29. 31. 33. 35. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 82.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 10/18/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.88 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.43 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.59 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.90 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 44.6% 29.2% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 54.5% 26.6% 15.2% 10.5% 38.1% 55.4% 80.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 10.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 5.6% 49.8% 90.3% Consensus: 3.8% 36.5% 19.1% 8.8% 3.5% 14.6% 44.0% 56.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 22.2% 10.5% 4.9% 1.7% 8.8% 22.0% 28.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952024 INVEST 10/18/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 10/18/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 34 41 47 59 43 32 31 23 15 16 18 20 22 24 29 18HR AGO 25 24 29 36 42 54 38 27 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 28 34 46 30 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT