* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 10/17/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 32 42 54 59 59 54 49 49 52 56 58 62 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 32 42 54 34 34 29 24 24 27 31 33 37 42 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 28 32 28 30 31 32 34 38 42 48 54 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 6 2 1 4 7 8 10 12 13 13 12 13 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 4 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 -1 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 242 216 250 271 216 178 119 165 126 121 87 82 78 38 39 24 19 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.7 28.5 28.6 29.0 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 164 165 169 170 170 163 165 145 146 152 145 144 145 145 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 4 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 83 85 82 80 79 78 78 80 83 85 83 84 80 78 76 76 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 11 13 15 18 16 12 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 72 67 64 62 79 89 80 76 72 58 48 51 47 56 69 68 200 MB DIV 80 118 103 107 102 110 95 32 39 86 138 174 145 49 -38 -7 9 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 0 1 -1 -4 3 3 4 0 2 1 -3 -5 -9 -5 LAND (KM) 158 149 148 120 96 67 9 -139 104 316 444 574 660 765 851 1003 1198 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.5 16.0 15.3 14.3 12.9 12.0 11.6 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.0 82.4 82.9 83.6 84.4 86.4 88.8 91.2 93.4 95.7 98.2 100.6 102.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 9 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 65 66 65 63 61 61 60 20 25 20 19 21 23 26 26 24 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 11. 19. 26. 32. 38. 44. 50. 55. 57. 61. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 6. 0. -7. -15. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 22. 34. 39. 39. 34. 29. 29. 32. 36. 38. 42. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.9 82.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 10/17/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.94 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 26.1% 8.2% 4.2% 2.4% 18.2% 58.7% 87.9% Bayesian: 1.7% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 16.7% 81.4% Consensus: 1.5% 9.6% 2.9% 1.4% 0.8% 6.5% 25.1% 56.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952024 INVEST 10/17/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 10/17/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 32 42 54 34 34 29 24 24 27 31 33 37 42 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 29 39 51 31 31 26 21 21 24 28 30 34 39 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 24 34 46 26 26 21 16 16 19 23 25 29 34 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT