* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 10/05/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 43 53 64 73 79 83 86 82 75 62 51 39 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 43 53 64 73 79 83 71 61 55 41 30 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 38 46 55 65 72 79 71 60 51 41 34 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 5 8 8 10 10 6 9 14 23 38 40 36 27 34 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 5 0 0 2 0 5 3 9 7 4 4 9 8 11 4 SHEAR DIR 159 248 235 246 258 223 246 232 245 219 219 217 225 213 206 191 213 SST (C) 31.2 31.3 31.3 31.2 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.9 30.6 30.0 30.5 29.3 28.4 28.0 28.1 28.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 168 168 169 170 171 172 172 171 173 159 145 139 141 151 141 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.4 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 7 6 6 8 6 8 6 7 5 3 1 3 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 79 80 78 76 73 69 67 64 61 56 58 60 63 61 57 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 13 17 22 27 30 34 37 36 35 31 27 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 57 57 38 32 30 54 70 79 106 146 132 104 102 91 64 102 71 200 MB DIV 48 41 38 17 7 34 20 43 26 45 65 98 66 31 24 39 36 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -7 -7 -16 -6 -11 -2 -16 -31 -67 -44 -53 -56 LAND (KM) 222 250 284 319 353 330 206 174 254 271 -42 216 547 713 1014 1299 1483 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 3 5 7 8 11 12 14 16 17 18 16 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 44 48 50 50 49 47 41 32 51 37 20 49 20 16 15 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 21. 24. 26. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 4. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 19. 25. 30. 35. 33. 30. 22. 15. 7. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 23. 34. 43. 49. 53. 56. 52. 45. 32. 21. 9. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.9 95.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 10/05/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.83 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.96 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 26.2% 12.0% 8.1% 5.5% 12.5% 15.4% 35.7% Logistic: 9.6% 42.5% 26.0% 4.8% 2.4% 12.2% 20.8% 31.5% Bayesian: 2.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 2.8% Consensus: 4.8% 23.5% 12.8% 4.4% 2.7% 8.3% 12.2% 23.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 8.0% 67.0% SDCON: 2.9% 14.7% 7.9% 3.2% 1.8% 5.6% 10.1% 45.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 10/05/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 10/05/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 43 53 64 73 79 83 71 61 55 41 30 19 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 40 50 61 70 76 80 68 58 52 38 27 16 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 34 44 55 64 70 74 62 52 46 32 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 46 55 61 65 53 43 37 23 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT