* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 10/05/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 45 53 62 75 80 84 88 86 75 63 43 31 22 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 45 53 62 75 80 84 88 69 62 49 30 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 39 42 50 60 72 82 88 91 73 63 48 34 24 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 1 2 3 4 9 4 7 7 16 31 50 62 70 76 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 2 0 0 1 3 7 7 8 6 4 8 5 12 18 SHEAR DIR 144 157 238 228 242 200 206 168 232 272 256 228 226 215 217 221 230 SST (C) 31.0 31.0 31.1 31.2 31.3 31.2 31.0 31.0 30.6 30.7 30.2 30.2 28.9 27.3 27.0 27.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 168 168 168 169 171 172 173 174 175 154 132 131 134 116 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -50.4 -50.0 -49.8 -50.1 -50.5 -50.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 7 7 6 8 7 8 7 9 8 6 1 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 79 78 72 71 67 62 53 52 54 50 43 42 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 8 10 13 16 23 26 29 32 32 29 27 20 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 72 67 60 47 32 33 55 68 72 96 110 122 86 64 51 -29 -89 200 MB DIV 60 69 52 44 29 19 34 32 14 20 43 72 31 8 -17 5 11 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -4 -1 5 -8 -43 -122 -119 -57 -40 LAND (KM) 186 191 198 214 236 309 336 198 51 87 150 -83 335 513 832 1047 939 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.1 22.2 21.8 21.5 21.7 22.4 24.1 26.7 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.3 95.4 95.3 95.1 94.4 93.5 92.2 90.0 87.2 84.2 80.9 77.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 2 3 4 5 8 12 15 18 20 20 24 30 42 50 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 42 45 46 45 41 38 22 28 58 28 39 16 9 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 17. 19. 23. 26. 28. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 9. 3. -4. -12. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 17. 22. 27. 31. 30. 24. 19. 9. 4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 23. 32. 45. 50. 54. 58. 56. 45. 33. 13. 1. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.1 95.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 10/05/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.85 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.79 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.94 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 33.6% 15.0% 8.4% 5.5% 13.7% 24.1% 49.5% Logistic: 10.9% 50.4% 30.1% 6.1% 2.9% 15.7% 31.1% 36.9% Bayesian: 4.1% 7.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.5% 2.2% 22.1% Consensus: 6.0% 30.6% 15.5% 5.1% 2.9% 10.3% 19.2% 36.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 10/05/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 10/05/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 40 45 53 62 75 80 84 88 69 62 49 30 17 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 41 49 58 71 76 80 84 65 58 45 26 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 34 42 51 64 69 73 77 58 51 38 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 33 42 55 60 64 68 49 42 29 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT