* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/12/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 51 58 63 69 74 78 79 78 80 84 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 51 57 62 68 74 77 79 78 79 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 37 43 50 57 64 71 78 83 86 88 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 5 3 3 1 6 7 9 5 6 11 14 8 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 -4 0 0 -3 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 158 113 126 124 130 58 237 341 337 355 341 345 301 335 358 35 66 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.5 29.9 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 153 158 157 158 165 161 167 157 160 162 163 163 162 160 162 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 56 59 57 56 54 55 54 55 56 55 55 57 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -9 -20 -19 -23 -40 -47 -54 -62 -65 -74 -81 -86 -75 -66 -59 -29 200 MB DIV 19 8 -8 -12 -1 -10 -36 -18 -1 3 -27 -2 -13 26 7 24 -2 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -3 -6 -5 -3 -3 -5 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1179 1045 895 757 611 437 198 24 31 125 193 262 275 297 335 343 303 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.7 18.6 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.7 50.0 51.5 52.9 54.5 57.2 59.8 62.1 64.0 65.3 66.3 67.3 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 15 15 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 4 2 0 3 HEAT CONTENT 38 57 83 80 60 41 50 74 86 64 86 91 82 66 60 60 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 41. 44. 44. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 14. 13. 11. 11. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 26. 33. 38. 44. 49. 53. 54. 53. 55. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 48.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/12/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.92 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.86 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 32.0% 18.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 17.8% 11.6% 3.3% 1.1% 10.4% 16.7% 50.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 15.0% 5.7% 0.7% 0.2% 3.9% 1.1% 9.8% Consensus: 3.2% 21.6% 12.0% 4.6% 0.4% 4.8% 12.9% 20.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/12/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/12/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 51 57 62 68 74 77 79 78 79 84 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 42 50 56 61 67 73 76 78 77 78 83 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 38 46 52 57 63 69 72 74 73 74 79 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 30 38 44 49 55 61 64 66 65 66 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT