* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/12/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 44 52 58 64 69 75 79 82 82 83 86 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 44 52 58 64 69 75 79 82 82 83 86 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 28 31 36 42 50 58 67 77 84 90 93 94 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 7 8 4 6 4 6 7 5 3 8 14 9 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 -7 0 -4 -1 0 1 -2 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 148 128 100 121 115 65 98 348 18 17 12 323 284 313 325 302 313 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 153 159 156 161 161 164 165 157 162 162 163 164 164 162 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 13 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 56 57 59 56 57 54 55 54 54 54 51 54 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 1 -8 -21 -24 -27 -41 -48 -50 -60 -58 -67 -58 -64 -35 -28 -10 200 MB DIV -6 10 0 0 -1 -16 -24 -14 -8 -3 -9 -28 12 -9 -11 -14 -6 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 0 -3 -5 -4 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1256 1213 1058 919 771 516 333 93 28 4 126 170 217 197 199 183 155 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.0 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.3 48.4 49.9 51.3 52.8 55.8 58.4 60.8 62.8 64.4 65.5 66.5 67.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 14 15 14 12 11 9 8 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 40 36 52 80 77 39 47 52 97 78 67 84 93 90 83 78 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 38. 41. 45. 46. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 27. 33. 39. 44. 50. 54. 57. 57. 58. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 47.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/12/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.90 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.37 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.83 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.1 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 29.6% 17.2% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 17.3% 11.9% 4.1% 1.4% 10.2% 12.2% 45.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 14.3% 7.7% 0.7% 0.3% 2.8% 0.9% 5.8% Consensus: 2.9% 20.4% 12.3% 4.8% 0.6% 4.3% 10.5% 17.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 10.7% 6.1% 2.4% .3% 2.1% 5.2% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/12/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/12/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 36 44 52 58 64 69 75 79 82 82 83 86 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 43 51 57 63 68 74 78 81 81 82 85 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 39 47 53 59 64 70 74 77 77 78 81 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 31 39 45 51 56 62 66 69 69 70 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT