* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/11/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 43 53 60 66 72 76 79 81 80 81 84 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 43 53 60 66 72 76 79 81 80 81 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 42 49 57 64 71 77 81 83 82 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 5 6 3 4 3 3 5 5 7 10 13 16 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -3 -5 0 -4 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 3 4 1 4 SHEAR DIR 148 127 112 99 116 130 56 211 336 321 343 299 310 301 319 347 355 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 151 155 155 159 162 162 163 152 153 158 161 162 160 161 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 9 10 700-500 MB RH 57 60 58 56 55 58 57 56 54 54 54 54 57 57 57 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 12 -1 -10 -24 -28 -39 -46 -54 -66 -75 -87 -75 -61 -55 -29 -16 200 MB DIV -14 -13 1 11 2 3 -1 -4 1 -15 6 -25 13 7 32 11 8 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -4 -1 -8 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1295 1236 1121 980 845 599 425 206 64 106 150 250 326 346 354 371 354 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.3 19.2 20.1 20.8 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.6 47.9 49.3 50.7 52.1 54.9 57.6 59.8 61.8 63.4 64.5 65.4 66.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 12 10 9 8 6 5 6 4 2 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 40 71 72 41 44 49 74 83 53 66 88 87 71 66 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 40. 43. 44. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 18. 28. 35. 41. 47. 51. 54. 56. 55. 56. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 46.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/11/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.89 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.82 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 16.2% 10.6% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 12.0% 6.6% 1.6% 0.6% 7.9% 28.5% 55.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 12.2% 4.8% 0.4% 0.2% 4.1% 3.6% 8.3% Consensus: 1.9% 13.5% 7.3% 3.2% 0.3% 4.0% 15.5% 21.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 7.2% 3.6% 1.6% .1% 2.0% 7.7% 10.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/11/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/11/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 35 43 53 60 66 72 76 79 81 80 81 84 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 33 41 51 58 64 70 74 77 79 78 79 82 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 29 37 47 54 60 66 70 73 75 74 75 78 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 30 40 47 53 59 63 66 68 67 68 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT