* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/11/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 54 62 69 74 80 86 89 86 86 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 54 62 69 74 80 86 89 86 86 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 42 51 61 72 81 89 95 96 93 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 6 5 8 8 6 5 5 7 10 8 10 13 19 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -1 -7 -2 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 83 120 122 85 84 102 44 62 18 359 354 359 312 310 314 333 304 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 148 153 158 158 162 160 166 165 163 163 167 164 162 163 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 13 13 14 13 14 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 58 56 55 58 54 55 50 51 52 54 55 57 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 12 2 -6 -24 -20 -40 -44 -51 -60 -60 -75 -79 -98 -83 -75 200 MB DIV -24 -11 -9 10 21 -5 -4 -42 -18 -22 -14 -9 -7 3 6 48 13 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -3 -7 -5 -4 -6 -3 -3 -4 -6 -2 -5 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1326 1258 1192 1074 930 663 446 282 51 28 13 93 158 151 187 211 219 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.3 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.8 47.1 48.4 49.7 51.1 53.9 56.7 59.0 61.2 63.2 64.9 66.3 67.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 11 10 10 8 7 7 8 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 40 51 86 73 39 49 55 105 80 76 85 86 65 60 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 30. 34. 39. 43. 46. 47. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 29. 37. 44. 49. 55. 61. 64. 61. 61. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.1 45.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/11/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.87 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.81 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 16.4% 10.8% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 25.2% 18.9% 11.3% 5.0% 26.9% 35.7% 72.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 22.9% 17.2% 2.7% 1.3% 6.7% 1.0% 16.0% Consensus: 3.3% 21.5% 15.6% 7.4% 2.1% 11.2% 16.9% 29.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 11.2% 7.8% 3.7% 1.0% 5.6% 8.4% 14.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/11/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/11/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 54 62 69 74 80 86 89 86 86 87 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 42 52 60 67 72 78 84 87 84 84 85 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 38 48 56 63 68 74 80 83 80 80 81 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 30 40 48 55 60 66 72 75 72 72 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT