* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/11/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 43 52 60 66 74 82 87 92 90 91 92 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 43 52 60 66 74 82 84 88 87 87 88 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 40 47 55 65 76 83 93 98 99 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 5 3 8 7 10 5 6 3 8 5 6 12 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -3 -2 -2 -5 -1 -4 -6 -1 -4 -2 -2 -4 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 146 134 126 119 110 94 95 67 137 44 28 10 327 326 285 308 290 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 141 142 147 155 162 161 164 164 169 171 169 163 157 161 165 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 14 11 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 61 60 55 57 55 54 52 52 51 52 53 53 55 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 27 18 12 1 -16 -21 -27 -40 -39 -55 -53 -54 -58 -77 -81 -73 200 MB DIV -4 -3 0 -12 1 18 -7 -17 -23 6 -31 9 -12 14 2 24 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -4 -1 -5 -3 -2 -2 -3 -4 -1 -4 -2 -5 2 LAND (KM) 1447 1377 1304 1233 1153 883 606 384 204 33 89 4 34 72 52 78 22 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.9 44.9 46.0 47.2 48.6 51.5 54.3 57.1 59.5 61.7 63.7 65.3 66.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 14 14 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 45 41 45 46 85 84 47 53 63 111 96 81 76 54 73 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 35. 40. 44. 48. 49. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 18. 27. 35. 41. 49. 57. 62. 67. 65. 66. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 43.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/11/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.92 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.77 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.2 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.9% 9.8% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 9.0% 5.5% 1.4% 0.4% 5.0% 15.4% 40.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 12.0% 5.1% 0.5% 0.7% 3.7% 0.4% 3.8% Consensus: 1.8% 12.0% 6.8% 3.0% 0.4% 2.9% 10.1% 14.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 6.0% 3.4% 1.5% .2% 1.4% 5.0% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/11/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/11/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 35 43 52 60 66 74 82 84 88 87 87 88 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 33 41 50 58 64 72 80 82 86 85 85 86 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 29 37 46 54 60 68 76 78 82 81 81 82 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 30 39 47 53 61 69 71 75 74 74 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT