* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/10/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 46 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 46 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 31 36 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 7 5 3 2 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -6 -1 0 -2 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 148 144 145 130 108 87 100 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 145 147 144 141 145 153 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 58 57 56 56 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 32 34 29 23 4 -9 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 15 10 2 8 13 15 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1575 1526 1478 1405 1337 1207 930 641 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 10 11 11 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 37 45 43 41 40 86 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 21. 30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 42.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/10/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.89 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.74 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 15.9% 10.5% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 17.6% 13.6% 8.2% 2.5% 17.9% 22.1% 31.5% Bayesian: 1.9% 7.2% 12.9% 1.4% 0.8% 5.0% 4.4% 4.1% Consensus: 3.4% 13.6% 12.3% 5.8% 1.1% 7.6% 13.6% 11.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 7.3% 6.6% 2.9% .5% 3.8% 6.8% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/10/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/10/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 32 38 46 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 43 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 39 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 31 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT