* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/10/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 43 52 58 63 68 75 83 90 90 92 92 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 43 52 58 63 68 75 83 90 90 76 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 40 46 53 61 70 82 94 101 89 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 6 3 5 5 8 8 6 3 4 4 4 9 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -7 -6 0 -3 -3 -5 -2 -4 0 -4 -5 -4 -3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 133 132 143 150 140 124 71 100 77 91 40 29 320 292 275 261 277 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.9 29.3 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.8 31.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 142 148 147 142 152 158 165 165 171 172 172 171 164 166 171 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 11 11 13 13 14 14 15 14 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 64 64 62 59 60 60 57 58 55 56 55 54 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 20 26 30 30 14 -1 -10 -23 -23 -26 -20 -29 -30 -37 -29 -39 200 MB DIV -9 -1 -1 -14 -4 18 25 1 -27 -29 -32 0 -22 12 -7 -1 -19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -1 -1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1611 1582 1541 1479 1395 1212 1049 753 463 245 32 169 178 106 91 -17 29 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.9 14.9 15.5 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.5 41.9 42.5 43.3 44.4 46.9 49.8 52.6 55.4 58.0 60.7 63.2 65.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 9 11 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 34 44 48 46 60 74 87 67 92 74 102 91 73 41 101 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 25. 31. 36. 41. 46. 50. 52. 54. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 18. 27. 33. 38. 43. 50. 58. 65. 65. 67. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 41.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/10/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.93 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.72 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 15.4% 10.3% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 22.3% 17.6% 10.0% 3.6% 19.4% 31.4% 48.5% Bayesian: 1.7% 10.6% 9.9% 1.1% 1.1% 6.3% 7.0% 21.0% Consensus: 3.1% 16.1% 12.6% 6.3% 1.5% 8.6% 17.5% 23.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/10/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/10/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 35 43 52 58 63 68 75 83 90 90 76 60 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 33 41 50 56 61 66 73 81 88 88 74 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 37 46 52 57 62 69 77 84 84 70 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 30 39 45 50 55 62 70 77 77 63 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT