* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/10/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 40 48 56 64 69 74 79 83 84 88 90 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 40 48 56 64 69 74 79 83 84 88 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 38 44 53 62 69 75 79 84 86 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 3 2 3 8 2 3 5 9 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -6 -2 -1 -2 -3 0 -5 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 111 68 154 170 263 326 341 38 78 95 198 260 226 225 263 284 263 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 141 144 143 147 153 155 160 157 153 159 161 162 162 161 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 60 61 59 63 56 59 55 55 54 53 51 54 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 19 27 29 10 -1 -23 -22 -46 -43 -53 -63 -84 -81 -69 -68 200 MB DIV 1 -8 8 13 2 -13 -3 13 -10 -2 -20 -3 -25 -3 -10 2 -16 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 -4 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1657 1644 1633 1595 1534 1386 1222 930 686 536 333 141 115 163 249 368 481 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.1 41.5 41.9 42.6 43.5 45.7 48.4 51.4 54.2 56.6 58.6 60.6 62.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 8 9 12 14 14 13 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 28 33 42 47 33 51 38 47 53 53 79 70 55 61 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 29. 34. 38. 41. 44. 45. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 15. 23. 31. 39. 44. 49. 54. 58. 59. 63. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 41.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/10/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.94 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.67 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 15.1% 10.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 24.0% 20.4% 7.4% 2.0% 15.2% 21.2% 40.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 6.6% 6.2% 0.5% 0.4% 3.3% 3.0% 13.3% Consensus: 3.2% 15.2% 12.2% 5.0% 0.8% 6.2% 12.8% 17.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/10/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/10/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 33 40 48 56 64 69 74 79 83 84 88 90 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 38 46 54 62 67 72 77 81 82 86 88 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 34 42 50 58 63 68 73 77 78 82 84 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 27 35 43 51 56 61 66 70 71 75 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT