* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/10/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 52 59 65 68 73 75 79 80 81 82 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 52 59 65 68 73 75 79 80 81 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 48 57 65 72 77 83 86 86 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 9 8 3 3 5 4 4 5 1 3 9 10 16 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -6 -7 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -6 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 126 125 105 127 137 22 53 351 56 350 58 291 290 281 285 276 274 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.1 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 141 144 145 143 148 155 157 160 153 160 166 164 165 163 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 11 10 11 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 57 58 58 59 60 58 59 55 58 56 57 64 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 21 25 23 32 24 11 -1 -19 -24 -44 -44 -52 -52 -31 -33 -40 200 MB DIV 10 5 5 7 10 -1 -2 5 5 8 -28 -8 -17 10 22 1 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -5 0 -2 -3 2 2 4 5 0 LAND (KM) 1664 1650 1636 1580 1527 1410 1267 1076 847 616 342 176 276 407 572 757 944 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 5 8 8 10 12 12 14 15 14 9 9 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 26 32 41 48 49 51 59 36 53 56 87 59 44 48 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 29. 34. 38. 41. 44. 45. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 19. 27. 34. 40. 43. 48. 50. 54. 55. 56. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 41.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/10/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.89 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.66 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 17.0% 11.4% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 10.2% 11.5% 5.0% 0.6% 5.3% 4.7% 10.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.5% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% 0.9% 2.2% Consensus: 2.3% 10.9% 8.7% 4.6% 0.2% 2.3% 6.6% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 5.9% 4.8% 2.3% .1% 1.1% 3.3% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/10/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/10/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 52 59 65 68 73 75 79 80 81 82 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 42 50 57 63 66 71 73 77 78 79 80 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 38 46 53 59 62 67 69 73 74 75 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 30 38 45 51 54 59 61 65 66 67 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT