* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/09/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 37 45 55 62 67 72 76 80 82 79 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 37 45 55 62 67 72 76 80 82 79 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 42 49 57 65 72 78 82 82 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 4 8 3 4 1 6 4 5 2 6 11 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 -5 -5 -4 -1 -4 -2 -6 0 -3 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 137 135 89 103 124 85 31 49 102 46 14 294 291 293 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.8 28.5 28.5 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 137 139 148 144 145 153 158 162 157 161 165 165 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 59 60 61 63 60 62 59 60 57 56 58 62 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 16 17 21 21 32 21 8 -16 -21 -38 -46 -46 -42 -56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 8 -9 0 10 12 -9 5 32 11 0 -15 0 8 56 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 0 -5 0 1 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1647 1644 1641 1608 1575 1460 1328 1211 964 707 542 292 233 373 576 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 6 9 10 13 14 14 15 14 11 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 24 25 27 29 50 48 52 81 60 43 56 89 62 45 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 34. 38. 42. 45. 46. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 20. 30. 37. 42. 47. 51. 55. 57. 54. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 40.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/09/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.91 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.64 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.93 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 16.0% 10.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 10.8% 14.3% 5.7% 0.6% 5.6% 3.9% 8.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 9.6% 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% Consensus: 2.3% 12.1% 9.3% 4.7% 0.2% 2.3% 6.5% 3.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 6.5% 5.1% 2.3% .1% 1.1% 3.2% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/09/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/09/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 37 45 55 62 67 72 76 80 82 79 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 35 43 53 60 65 70 74 78 80 77 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 38 48 55 60 65 69 73 75 72 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 31 41 48 53 58 62 66 68 65 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT