* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/09/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 46 54 62 66 71 73 77 79 78 78 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 46 54 62 66 71 73 77 79 78 78 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 32 36 40 45 50 56 59 62 65 66 65 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 4 4 9 3 1 4 2 6 7 12 14 19 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -5 -2 -9 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 -7 -3 -4 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 360 48 113 124 117 168 305 115 317 310 288 307 297 285 272 281 275 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 134 135 137 141 146 144 149 153 160 160 158 162 164 165 168 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 9 8 5 700-500 MB RH 55 56 59 60 61 60 59 61 59 60 61 61 59 59 60 66 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR 6 16 23 25 27 36 33 23 3 -15 -19 -46 -58 -47 -65 -41 -10 200 MB DIV -5 1 15 5 15 25 -11 -12 18 26 23 15 19 -14 9 44 78 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -5 -4 -2 -2 0 8 9 15 LAND (KM) 1624 1670 1678 1663 1641 1589 1461 1312 1075 824 658 480 435 503 644 886 1211 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.4 15.5 15.6 16.1 16.9 17.8 19.2 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.7 40.4 40.4 40.7 41.1 42.3 44.3 46.8 49.9 52.8 55.5 57.5 58.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 4 5 7 12 14 15 14 13 10 9 9 10 13 16 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 25 24 25 31 47 48 34 38 41 81 70 53 47 41 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 29. 34. 38. 41. 44. 44. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 21. 29. 37. 41. 46. 48. 52. 54. 53. 53. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 40.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/09/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.90 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.64 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.83 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 15.9% 10.6% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 15.7% 19.4% 7.6% 0.9% 8.2% 6.7% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 16.0% 4.8% 0.4% 0.2% 2.4% 7.7% 0.9% Consensus: 3.0% 15.9% 11.6% 5.3% 0.4% 3.6% 9.4% 4.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 8.4% 6.3% 2.6% .2% 1.8% 4.7% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/09/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/09/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 37 46 54 62 66 71 73 77 79 78 78 80 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 44 52 60 64 69 71 75 77 76 76 78 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 39 47 55 59 64 66 70 72 71 71 73 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 31 39 47 51 56 58 62 64 63 63 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT