* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/09/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 51 59 62 68 75 78 83 83 85 89 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 51 59 62 68 75 78 83 83 85 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 39 45 53 61 70 78 84 91 96 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 9 6 7 13 6 3 3 5 3 5 2 2 2 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 -2 -3 -3 -5 -1 -7 0 -2 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 14 8 22 42 49 80 91 65 93 92 79 51 88 55 334 354 9 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 141 144 146 141 148 153 156 157 160 158 163 164 163 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 58 58 60 62 64 64 67 62 67 60 61 59 57 56 54 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 2 7 10 14 21 9 5 -16 -20 -34 -44 -50 -63 -82 -81 200 MB DIV 20 4 4 11 8 17 15 -15 12 34 15 -3 -19 -20 -11 13 0 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -5 -1 -3 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1439 1448 1442 1443 1431 1417 1349 1246 1134 899 673 546 407 264 251 315 391 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.9 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.4 42.5 42.7 42.8 43.1 43.7 44.7 46.5 48.8 51.4 53.9 56.1 57.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 4 7 10 12 12 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 33 34 40 52 54 51 53 76 55 39 61 59 74 79 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 39. 42. 46. 47. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 26. 34. 37. 43. 50. 53. 58. 58. 60. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 42.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/09/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.63 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 15.0% 10.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 3.5% 6.5% 2.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 18.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 12.5% 6.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.5% 4.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 6.7% 3.5% 1.6% 0% .2% 2.1% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/09/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/09/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 51 59 62 68 75 78 83 83 85 89 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 42 50 58 61 67 74 77 82 82 84 88 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 38 46 54 57 63 70 73 78 78 80 84 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 30 38 46 49 55 62 65 70 70 72 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT