* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/09/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 40 47 55 59 63 67 73 76 82 82 86 90 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 40 47 55 59 63 67 73 76 82 82 86 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 41 46 51 57 64 69 75 82 90 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 7 6 12 15 7 11 13 13 14 13 6 7 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 0 -6 -7 0 -2 -5 -5 -6 -4 0 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 52 27 12 42 65 75 113 55 76 57 81 63 73 68 26 336 2 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 138 136 138 140 144 151 150 156 153 155 160 160 160 160 163 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 7 7 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 57 60 60 60 62 64 66 66 68 67 64 63 60 56 54 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 12 6 14 25 35 30 18 11 -1 -9 -11 -26 -35 -58 -57 200 MB DIV -10 11 2 13 24 21 27 -4 -6 7 30 9 -15 0 -31 -19 10 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 0 -3 0 2 LAND (KM) 1438 1454 1455 1455 1448 1419 1378 1258 1125 999 914 673 490 369 294 165 220 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.9 14.3 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.2 42.2 42.3 42.4 42.5 42.9 43.5 44.9 46.7 48.9 51.0 53.3 55.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 1 2 5 8 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 29 30 30 35 44 52 52 54 59 65 84 51 49 54 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 18. 24. 30. 35. 40. 44. 48. 50. 52. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 15. 22. 30. 34. 38. 42. 48. 51. 57. 57. 61. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 42.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/09/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.64 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.74 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 15.6% 10.5% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 3.9% 7.8% 3.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 21.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 13.6% 6.7% 3.6% 0.1% 0.5% 4.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 7.3% 3.3% 1.8% 0% .2% 2.0% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/09/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/09/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 40 47 55 59 63 67 73 76 82 82 86 90 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 38 45 53 57 61 65 71 74 80 80 84 88 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 34 41 49 53 57 61 67 70 76 76 80 84 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 33 41 45 49 53 59 62 68 68 72 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT