* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/08/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 41 49 58 63 68 71 73 77 80 81 84 87 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 41 49 58 63 68 71 73 77 80 81 84 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 44 49 54 60 64 68 72 74 76 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 7 7 6 8 11 8 4 4 6 8 4 8 7 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 -1 -4 -7 -4 -4 -4 -5 -1 -2 -1 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 44 40 19 14 49 61 94 117 120 128 122 179 185 198 249 233 241 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 138 138 142 145 147 144 149 153 156 157 160 160 160 162 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 55 57 60 60 61 64 64 66 64 66 61 60 57 54 53 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 6 6 11 2 4 11 16 0 -4 -21 -25 -37 -46 -46 -58 -71 200 MB DIV -22 -18 3 -1 1 14 0 -10 -16 -2 22 4 -3 -40 -12 -23 -2 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 2 -1 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1415 1423 1424 1433 1427 1407 1393 1325 1206 1105 883 653 500 358 199 129 164 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.3 42.4 42.5 42.6 42.8 43.2 43.8 44.8 46.7 49.0 51.5 54.0 56.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 7 10 12 12 13 11 9 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 29 30 33 40 52 55 54 57 75 63 40 52 52 63 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 39. 43. 46. 48. 50. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 16. 24. 33. 38. 43. 46. 48. 52. 55. 56. 59. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 42.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/08/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.70 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 14.4% 9.8% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 4.6% 9.2% 4.4% 0.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 41.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.3% 1.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 20.0% 7.3% 4.0% 0.1% 1.5% 4.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 10.5% 4.1% 2.0% 0% .7% 2.2% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/08/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/08/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 41 49 58 63 68 71 73 77 80 81 84 87 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 38 46 55 60 65 68 70 74 77 78 81 84 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 33 41 50 55 60 63 65 69 72 73 76 79 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 33 42 47 52 55 57 61 64 65 68 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT