* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/08/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 48 56 64 71 76 81 85 87 85 86 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 48 56 64 71 76 81 85 87 85 86 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 42 48 56 63 70 75 77 76 74 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 6 6 6 10 6 3 1 1 2 5 3 8 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 -5 -2 -4 -3 1 4 4 6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 26 45 54 36 28 45 54 99 8 90 343 135 243 263 255 273 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 138 138 140 144 145 141 141 147 153 161 162 161 159 159 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 57 59 61 61 63 64 65 62 64 58 58 57 55 55 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 7 11 15 18 10 11 10 -2 6 -13 -24 -26 -45 -62 -56 -71 200 MB DIV -18 -21 -24 8 18 31 9 15 -37 -30 19 12 20 12 -31 -17 -21 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -4 4 4 4 4 LAND (KM) 1399 1407 1416 1417 1427 1422 1424 1418 1341 1285 1045 853 677 540 534 596 653 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.4 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.4 42.5 42.6 42.7 42.8 43.1 43.6 44.2 45.7 47.7 50.3 52.8 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 9 11 14 13 13 10 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 29 30 33 39 51 52 47 38 32 29 48 89 74 67 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 18. 23. 29. 34. 38. 41. 44. 45. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. -0. 1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -8. -11. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 23. 31. 39. 46. 51. 56. 60. 62. 60. 61. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 42.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/08/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.66 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.64 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 11.3% 7.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.3% 4.7% 2.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 14.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.9% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 9.5% 4.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.5% 4.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 5.2% 2.6% 1.3% 0% .2% 2.0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/08/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/08/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 31 37 48 56 64 71 76 81 85 87 85 86 87 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 35 46 54 62 69 74 79 83 85 83 84 85 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 31 42 50 58 65 70 75 79 81 79 80 81 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 35 43 51 58 63 68 72 74 72 73 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT