* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/08/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 39 49 59 67 72 76 80 83 88 88 93 97 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 39 49 59 67 72 76 80 83 88 88 93 97 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 44 51 57 62 67 73 81 90 97 104 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 10 7 6 6 9 14 8 5 2 6 4 3 1 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -5 -5 -5 -2 -6 -3 -5 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 69 26 48 65 60 48 54 76 83 70 104 90 125 47 248 319 332 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 144 144 141 144 145 148 148 152 151 158 162 163 164 170 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 10 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 58 61 61 66 66 68 64 67 63 62 57 54 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 11 11 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 13 11 13 13 11 27 29 11 10 -3 0 0 -15 -19 -28 200 MB DIV 0 -8 -14 0 20 29 12 1 13 0 -9 4 13 15 -21 -24 -13 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 1 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1376 1376 1385 1386 1387 1388 1374 1371 1319 1223 1103 965 691 434 267 50 44 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.6 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.5 42.7 42.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.3 43.6 44.4 45.9 48.0 50.6 53.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 1 1 0 2 3 6 9 12 13 14 14 13 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 31 32 34 36 39 45 53 52 67 57 69 58 51 56 113 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 40. 44. 47. 49. 53. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 14. 24. 34. 42. 47. 51. 55. 58. 63. 63. 68. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 42.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/08/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.71 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.71 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 12.0% 8.0% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.2% 4.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 16.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 10.1% 4.4% 2.5% 0.0% 0.3% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/08/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/08/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 31 39 49 59 67 72 76 80 83 88 88 93 97 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 37 47 57 65 70 74 78 81 86 86 91 95 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 33 43 53 61 66 70 74 77 82 82 87 91 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 36 46 54 59 63 67 70 75 75 80 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT