* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 09/08/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 40 51 62 69 74 79 85 90 97 98 104 106 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 40 51 62 69 74 79 85 90 97 98 104 106 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 44 51 57 64 71 78 86 93 100 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 7 7 6 11 11 11 9 6 4 7 11 9 8 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 1 1 -2 -3 -6 -4 -5 -3 -5 -7 -4 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 77 68 33 25 11 22 56 55 88 77 105 29 71 49 64 348 320 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 146 144 143 142 143 145 147 145 151 151 156 158 161 167 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 58 59 57 56 57 62 64 66 70 69 69 63 63 59 57 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 11 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 28 17 18 17 16 24 27 22 22 15 8 -1 -10 -20 -21 200 MB DIV 20 26 17 12 12 11 34 -9 13 -6 20 3 13 3 -36 -20 -28 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1360 1352 1353 1361 1378 1397 1422 1433 1417 1333 1218 1124 917 668 516 291 154 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.7 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.4 42.6 42.8 42.9 42.9 43.1 43.1 43.2 43.7 44.8 46.5 48.8 51.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 3 7 10 12 12 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 29 30 31 37 40 44 52 55 53 53 59 61 41 55 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 39. 43. 46. 48. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 16. 26. 37. 44. 49. 54. 60. 65. 72. 73. 79. 81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 42.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 09/08/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.72 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.58 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 14.6% 9.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 4.0% 8.8% 3.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 38.7% 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 2.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 19.1% 7.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 09/08/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 09/08/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 31 33 40 51 62 69 74 79 85 90 97 98 104 106 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 37 48 59 66 71 76 82 87 94 95 101 103 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 44 55 62 67 72 78 83 90 91 97 99 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 35 46 53 58 63 69 74 81 82 88 90 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT