* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 10/02/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 63 68 74 75 81 90 96 99 101 105 106 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 63 68 74 75 81 90 96 99 101 105 106 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 52 58 66 74 80 84 89 95 100 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 11 11 9 12 9 10 13 9 6 7 3 3 7 6 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 7 9 5 6 3 2 3 7 5 3 4 1 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 3 345 339 3 22 19 35 31 20 330 269 340 56 54 49 109 353 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.1 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 153 153 154 152 157 161 161 161 154 147 150 149 149 157 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 78 76 74 71 70 69 65 62 57 47 47 46 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 18 19 21 22 22 23 23 26 29 30 30 30 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -6 6 9 12 18 37 46 53 47 53 49 27 9 -11 -11 14 200 MB DIV 94 108 102 59 56 45 55 58 43 56 110 70 34 35 30 11 7 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 6 10 4 0 1 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1306 1358 1411 1465 1518 1652 1664 1664 1687 1735 1753 1710 1714 1733 1729 1655 1546 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 8 11 11 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 20 21 21 22 21 20 21 22 25 25 24 27 27 27 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 27. 33. 38. 43. 46. 49. 50. 52. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 8. 12. 15. 16. 13. 13. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 33. 38. 44. 45. 51. 60. 66. 69. 71. 75. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 28.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 10/02/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.49 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.52 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.79 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 16.8% 10.5% 7.0% 4.3% 10.6% 10.8% 19.2% Logistic: 7.3% 23.1% 11.4% 5.0% 2.9% 5.4% 6.7% 3.7% Bayesian: 1.1% 7.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% 3.7% 2.4% Consensus: 3.6% 15.8% 7.8% 4.1% 2.4% 5.9% 7.1% 8.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 7.0% SDCON: 2.8% 14.9% 6.4% 3.0% 1.7% 4.9% 5.5% 7.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 10/02/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 46 55 63 68 74 75 81 90 96 99 101 105 106 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 51 59 64 70 71 77 86 92 95 97 101 102 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 44 52 57 63 64 70 79 85 88 90 94 95 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 41 46 52 53 59 68 74 77 79 83 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT