* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 10/02/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 47 54 60 66 71 79 88 96 99 105 105 107 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 47 54 60 66 71 79 88 96 99 105 105 107 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 34 36 40 44 48 54 62 70 77 84 92 98 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 15 9 6 7 13 12 14 8 5 4 4 5 4 8 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 9 12 9 6 8 3 6 4 7 2 1 1 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 352 3 337 328 23 2 19 20 10 21 341 288 36 59 67 41 357 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.8 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 153 153 154 152 154 159 161 161 157 150 147 150 149 156 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 78 78 73 74 71 71 64 63 56 52 48 47 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 18 18 19 22 23 23 25 27 30 31 30 34 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -11 -6 0 4 14 22 38 41 50 49 42 32 13 2 -9 -10 200 MB DIV 84 106 119 110 86 43 58 58 49 54 85 87 26 36 16 33 1 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 2 3 1 0 1 1 4 2 -2 1 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 1195 1255 1316 1366 1415 1552 1685 1662 1692 1733 1782 1731 1712 1721 1715 1625 1514 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 7 8 7 8 6 8 10 10 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 20 21 22 21 20 20 22 23 26 24 26 28 28 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 27. 33. 38. 43. 47. 50. 51. 53. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 10. 13. 16. 17. 13. 17. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 24. 30. 36. 41. 49. 58. 66. 69. 75. 75. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 27.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 10/02/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.47 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.60 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.79 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 16.8% 10.4% 6.9% 4.1% 10.1% 9.8% 17.2% Logistic: 4.5% 21.3% 8.5% 4.2% 2.7% 6.1% 4.7% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.8% 1.7% Consensus: 2.4% 14.4% 6.5% 3.7% 2.3% 5.7% 5.1% 7.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 8.0% 13.0% 5.0% SDCON: 2.2% 13.7% 5.2% 2.8% 1.6% 6.8% 9.0% 6.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 10/02/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 42 47 54 60 66 71 79 88 96 99 105 105 107 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 44 51 57 63 68 76 85 93 96 102 102 104 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 38 45 51 57 62 70 79 87 90 96 96 98 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 36 42 48 53 61 70 78 81 87 87 89 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT