* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 10/02/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 46 51 59 63 71 75 84 86 94 96 101 105 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 46 51 59 63 71 75 84 86 94 96 101 105 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 38 40 44 48 54 61 68 73 78 83 90 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 16 14 14 11 9 9 10 11 6 8 3 2 5 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 6 8 10 10 8 8 6 -1 7 1 3 4 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 336 351 359 355 349 359 331 12 16 358 339 279 308 339 69 33 52 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.6 28.9 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 153 151 153 153 154 152 154 160 160 158 150 145 151 150 155 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 79 79 76 73 72 70 67 60 57 57 53 55 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 19 21 23 22 26 26 31 29 33 33 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -15 -13 -10 -2 4 17 21 39 47 46 47 31 16 14 8 5 200 MB DIV 80 95 103 121 112 56 71 78 71 103 103 92 67 30 37 19 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 1 3 2 0 1 0 5 11 4 0 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 1091 1165 1241 1299 1356 1452 1611 1718 1717 1734 1788 1766 1763 1738 1707 1652 1547 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 6 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 18 20 21 22 20 19 20 22 26 25 24 28 28 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 33. 38. 43. 47. 50. 51. 53. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 13. 13. 18. 15. 18. 16. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 21. 29. 33. 41. 45. 54. 56. 64. 66. 71. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 26.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 10/02/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.38 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.60 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.81 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 15.9% 9.8% 6.3% 3.4% 9.3% 9.9% 18.0% Logistic: 5.3% 21.5% 8.2% 3.6% 2.2% 4.5% 6.7% 6.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 6.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.7% 7.8% 3.8% Consensus: 2.7% 14.7% 6.4% 3.3% 1.9% 5.2% 8.1% 9.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 13.0% SDCON: 2.3% 11.8% 5.2% 2.6% 1.4% 4.1% 5.5% 11.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 10/02/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 41 46 51 59 63 71 75 84 86 94 96 101 105 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 42 47 55 59 67 71 80 82 90 92 97 101 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 41 49 53 61 65 74 76 84 86 91 95 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 33 41 45 53 57 66 68 76 78 83 87 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT