* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 10/01/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 48 53 58 61 66 74 76 83 85 88 90 91 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 48 53 58 61 66 74 76 83 85 88 90 91 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 44 48 55 62 66 69 71 73 76 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 20 17 13 13 10 9 5 7 4 5 11 12 10 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 5 5 7 9 6 8 8 4 5 9 6 7 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 322 335 342 343 352 360 349 348 4 318 302 330 29 67 59 82 263 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.6 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 154 152 153 152 152 151 152 155 146 141 137 138 145 149 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.6 -52.9 -53.7 -52.8 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 700-500 MB RH 81 80 80 79 79 78 74 74 73 72 67 65 56 56 55 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 16 16 18 20 22 22 24 28 28 31 32 33 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 -16 -14 -12 -4 13 21 34 44 47 34 21 -4 -25 -49 -32 200 MB DIV 38 68 88 99 122 61 80 66 59 102 45 39 28 31 27 19 31 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 4 6 4 4 0 0 1 8 LAND (KM) 1013 1076 1137 1214 1286 1424 1532 1608 1631 1630 1683 1811 2045 2120 2086 1992 1970 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.1 10.7 10.3 10.2 10.7 11.8 13.5 15.5 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.9 26.6 27.3 28.1 28.8 30.0 30.9 31.6 32.0 32.3 33.1 34.4 36.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 7 7 6 3 3 5 8 11 12 14 15 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 17 18 20 22 22 21 20 19 17 16 19 21 22 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 33. 38. 42. 45. 48. 49. 50. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 10. 16. 15. 17. 17. 17. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 36. 44. 46. 53. 55. 58. 60. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 25.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 10/01/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.38 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.83 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 17.3% 10.9% 7.4% 4.3% 10.2% 10.1% 17.5% Logistic: 6.4% 18.1% 8.2% 3.8% 1.7% 4.1% 5.2% 6.3% Bayesian: 1.3% 7.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 2.1% 0.9% 1.9% Consensus: 3.6% 14.4% 7.0% 3.9% 2.2% 5.5% 5.4% 8.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% SDCON: 2.8% 10.7% 4.5% 2.4% 1.1% 3.7% 3.7% 6.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 10/01/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 48 53 58 61 66 74 76 83 85 88 90 91 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 44 49 54 57 62 70 72 79 81 84 86 87 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 43 48 51 56 64 66 73 75 78 80 81 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 34 39 42 47 55 57 64 66 69 71 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT