* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 10/01/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 45 51 55 62 66 71 72 75 76 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 45 51 55 62 66 71 72 75 76 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 38 42 45 47 47 50 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 30 24 21 21 13 12 11 7 7 13 20 16 12 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 0 4 3 7 9 8 6 7 7 7 13 5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 337 334 338 348 356 12 5 354 26 343 2 331 20 48 23 26 323 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 156 153 152 153 153 152 151 151 153 155 144 140 134 135 141 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -50.8 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 83 84 82 83 81 81 75 74 73 75 68 60 57 58 58 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 17 20 21 23 23 26 26 28 27 30 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -9 -12 -28 -26 -17 -5 8 25 47 39 25 12 13 -17 -25 -37 200 MB DIV 36 46 77 90 105 115 68 84 94 97 114 73 20 45 24 32 24 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 3 4 7 5 1 -2 0 2 LAND (KM) 981 1047 1117 1180 1241 1372 1473 1568 1619 1611 1615 1647 1769 1961 2182 2159 2069 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.2 11.0 10.5 9.9 9.9 10.7 12.0 13.8 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.6 26.3 27.1 27.8 28.4 29.6 30.4 31.1 31.6 31.8 32.2 32.8 34.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 6 6 5 5 3 2 6 8 10 12 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 16 17 20 21 23 23 21 20 19 16 15 17 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 13. 21. 28. 34. 40. 45. 49. 53. 54. 56. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. -17. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 12. 12. 13. 11. 13. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 20. 26. 30. 37. 41. 46. 47. 50. 51. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 25.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 10/01/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.34 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.86 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.0% 8.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 18.0% 7.8% 3.2% 2.1% 4.8% 4.7% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 2.5% Consensus: 2.3% 11.2% 5.5% 3.0% 0.7% 1.7% 4.5% 3.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.6% 6.6% 3.2% 1.5% .3% 1.3% 2.2% 3.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 10/01/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 45 51 55 62 66 71 72 75 76 79 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 32 38 43 49 53 60 64 69 70 73 74 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 28 34 39 45 49 56 60 65 66 69 70 73 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 27 32 38 42 49 53 58 59 62 63 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT